Scotland’s 2026 Election and the Cracking of the Yookay - An Irish Nationalist Perspective
For Irish readers, the most important feature of the forthcoming Scottish election may not be the familiar question of who forms the next devolved government at Holyrood, but the broader constitutional mood it reveals. Increasingly, the SNP’s politics are being drawn into a wider alignment alongside Plaid Cymru and Provisional Sinn Féin, with all three presenting themselves in ‘progressive’, pro-EU terms as constitutional nationalist forces operating on different fronts of a declared challenge to the Yookay.
That alignment has become more explicit in recent months. Senior figures from the SNP and Plaid Cymru have appeared alongside Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill in discussions framed around the future of the British constitutional order, with the suggestion that electoral developments in Scotland and Wales may feed into the longer-term trajectory of the ending of partition. Whether or not that ambition is realised by constitutional means, the framing itself is of at least some significance. It reflects a growing sense among these parties that the constitutional question is no longer confined within each territory, but is part of a wider reconfiguration of politics across Britain and the North of Ireland.
Yet while some may see this as evidence of a wider anti-British convergence, it remains largely constitutional and electoral in character, aligned with the existing European liberal order and rooted in parties that seek change through institutions and frameworks they continue to recognise and operate within in practice. For those who view the national question primarily as one of sovereignty, rather than administrative reform, that distinction is not a minor one.
Within Scotland itself, however, the picture is more complicated. The SNP remains the central force in Scottish politics and is widely expected to emerge once again as the largest party. Polling differs on whether it can secure an outright majority, but there is virtually no doubt that it will remain the largest party in Holyrood. The more pressing question is whether that dominance still carries the same political authority it once did. After nearly two decades in government, the party faces a familiar difficulty, that it continues to command broad sympathy on the national question, yet its record on day-to-day governance is increasingly subject to scrutiny.
That tension lies at the heart of the campaign. The SNP continues to position itself as the vehicle for Scottish self-determination, but it must do so while addressing immediate pressures around the cost of living, public services and economic management. For some voters, particularly those already inclined towards independence, the question is no longer whether they agree with the party’s long-term aims, but whether they remain convinced by its capacity to govern effectively in the present.
If the SNP’s position reflects a mixture of resilience and fatigue, the opposition landscape is defined by fragmentation and uncertainty. The most interesting contest may not be who comes first, but who emerges as the main party of opposition. Scottish Labour continues to seek a route back to relevance, presenting itself as the most credible vehicle for change after years of SNP rule. Yet it does so in the shadow of a ‘UK’ Labour leadership that remains unpopular with significant sections of the Scottish electorate. Anas Sarwar has made visible efforts to distance Scottish Labour from Keir Starmer, but whether that distinction is sufficient to restore trust remains an open question.
At the same time, Reform is attempting to turn anti-establishment frustration into a foothold in Scottish politics. Its support stems from a broader sense of dissatisfaction with both the devolved Scottish political class and the wider British political establishment, especially with regard to matters such as political accountability and immigration. Yet there is an inherent tension in that positioning. Reform in Scotland is led by Malcolm Offord, a former Conservative minister for exports whose own record in government included support for clean-growth export finance and outreach to women and ethnic minority-led businesses. That background sits uneasily alongside his new party’s current rhetoric and raises questions about whether Reform represents a genuine break from the existing political order or simply a new face of it.
The Conservatives, once able to present themselves as the principal unionist counterweight to the SNP, now appear to be losing that position. Polling suggests a significant decline, with the party appearing almost certain to fall behind both Labour and Reform. If confirmed, that would mark a profound shift in Scottish politics. For much of the post-referendum period, the Conservatives’ relevance depended on their ability to consolidate unionist voters. The erosion of that role leaves them without a clear strategic purpose.
Beyond the four main parties, there are further signs of a political landscape in flux. The Scottish Greens, who support independence, remain heavily reliant on the regional list for representation and are standing only six constituency candidates. They are seeking what would be their first constituency breakthrough and any such success would mark an important step towards becoming a more deeply rooted electoral force rather than a party primarily defined by national issue-based appeal and entirely regional representation.
The Liberal Democrats rarely sit at the centre of Scottish political discussion, but the fragmentation of the field may still work in their favour. In some of their old strongholds there are signs of recovery and that could translate into modest but meaningful gains, particularly among voters looking for a more centrist alternative to Labour and the Conservatives.
There is also a further socialist dimension to the election. George Galloway, leader of the Workers Party of Britain, has recently shifted towards support for Scottish self-determination after years of opposition. However, according to a source from the WPB, the party itself has no settled position on Scotland’s constitutional status at present.
Meanwhile, newer or less established groupings such as the Alliance to Liberate Scotland and Sovereignty are attempting to articulate alternative pro-independence positions, in some cases combining a more socially conservative or Eurosceptic outlook with a commitment to Scottish independence. While it does not seem likely to play a decisive role in the immediate electoral outcome, such formations point to the wider range of political opinion within the Scottish independence movement itself.
From an Irish nationalist perspective, the significance of the contest does not lie in the status of Holyrood as a devolved institution, but in what it reveals about the continuing instability of the British constitutional order and state mechanism.
Taken together, these developments suggest that the Scottish election is less a straightforward contest between government and opposition than a reflection of deeper structural change. The old certainties of Scottish politics, Labour strongholds, Conservative unionism and SNP insurgency, have given way to a more fluid and unsettled environment in which multiple parties are competing to define both the constitutional future and the management of devolved government.
For Irish observers, this does not matter simply because of Scotland’s internal dynamics, but because of what it signals about the trajectory of the British state as a whole. The convergence of constitutional nationalist parties across Scotland, Wales and Ireland, combined with the fragmentation of traditional party alignments, points towards a political landscape in which the long-term stability of the British state can no longer be taken for granted.
The outcome of the election will not settle that question. But it may offer another indication of the direction in which Scotland and perhaps the wider archipelago are moving.
